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Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Dow Jones Analysis 12/18/08 - Stock Market

The following is Technical Analysis for the Dow Jones ( DJIA ) for 12/18/08

Dow Jones Support & Resistance Levels - December 18, 2008

Resistance Levels: 9000, 9200, 9654
Support Levels: 8750, 8500

The Dow Jones failed to break strong resistance at 9000 today but is still trending 100 points above the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The 10 day is getting ready to cross the 50, another bullish indicator. Breaking and closing over Dow 9000 will not be an easy task, but like 1600 on the Nasdaq, if the Dow Jones can do this, there could be a significant move to the upside. Resistance for the Dow after 9000 would be the 9200 level and 9654 level. Support continues to be both the 10 and 50 day moving averages as well as 8500. More Technical Analysis - Go HERE

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Nasdaq Analysis 12/18/08 - December 18, 2008

The following is Technical Analysis for the Nasdaq ( NAS ) for 12/18/08

Nasdaq Support & Resistance Levels - December 18, 2008

Resistance Levels: 1600, 1675

Support Levels: 1580, 1540, 1500 - Chart

The Nasdaq continues to trade in this uptrend in a bear market with pullbacks being bought near the 50 day moving average. The Nasdaq has been testing the key resistance level of 1600 but has been failing. This level will be very tough to get through but if closed over, you could have a significant move to the upside. Support for the Nasdaq remains the 50 day and 10 day moving averages which by tomorrow will be 1580 and 1540. The Nasdaq remained fairly strong today despite negative news out of Apple, great sign! For more technical analysis, Click Here

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Dow Jones Close 12/17/08 - Stock Market Closing Prices

Stock Market Closing Prices - 12/17/08

Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA ) Close - 8824.34 Down 99.80
Nasdaq Stock Market Close - 1579.31 Down 10.58
S&P 500 Close - 904.40 Down 8.78

Treasury Rates 12/17/08 - 10 Year Treasury Note - 2.19% 30 Year Treasury Note 2.66% 2 Year Treasury Note - .74%

Libor Rates - 12/17/08 - 30 Day Libor Rate - .581 , 90 Day Libor - 1.578

Commodities Closing Prices - 12/17/08

Gold - 869
Oil - 40.47
Natural Gas - 5.60

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8824 on 12/17/08, as the stock market gave back some of yesterday's gains but closed higher on the day. The Dow Jones Futures were down this morning with profit taking and grim Apple ( AAPL ) news. MacWorld is being cancelled starting in 2010 and Steve Jobs will not be making his keynote speech in the 2009 MacWorld. Wall Street is now pricing into the stock the potential health problems associated with Steve Jobs. There has been some big selling hitting AAPL below $90. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq are having trouble near their resistance levels of 9000 & 1600 respectively but pullbacks near their 50 day moving average continue to be bought. Morgan Stanley MS earnings were in line and that stock was up over 10% today at one point. Goldman Sachs ( GS ) added to the gains yesterday as well. The Solar Stocks were breaking out today, First Solar ( FSLR ) was up over 10%. Energy Conversion Devices ( ENER ) was up big as well. I will have more technical analysis of the markets later tonight.

Todays Biggest Stock Market Gainers : Dynavax ( DVAX ) was the largest gainer today.... after hitting .70 at the open, it was all uphill from there!

Top 2008 Stocks

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10 Year Treasury Note 12/17/08 - December 17, 2008

The 10-year Treasury note yield has become the security most frequently quoted when discussing the performance of the U.S. government-bond market and is used to convey the market's take on longer-term macroeconomic expectations. Treasury notes are a stated interest rate, and the owner receives semi-annual interest payments.

Today, 12/17/08, the 10 Year Note fell to a new low hitting 2.074 but has rebounded up to 2.162 in the afternoon. This is an all time low, or the lowest since the Federal Reserve started keeping historic data. The fall in the 10 year note signifies that the Credit Crisis that started around sixteen months ago is far from over.

This is a situation worth watching!

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Apple AAPL Stock Analysis 12/17/08 December 17

The following is technical analysis for Apple ( AAPL ). I will have an updated AAPL Chart showing this analysis tonight. Due to rules, you cannot take chart snaps during trading hours.

Apple AAPL Technical Analysis December 17th, 2008

AAPL gapped below support of $95 today on fear over Steve Jobs health and has hit a low of $88 in which Apple has bounced off of twice today. The $88-$89 area has been a good level of support over the past 2 months. If this level breaks the next two support levels are $85 and $79.14 area. Resistance: Apple now has resistance at today's high of $91.10 and the previous support level of $95. Apple will continue to see selling pressure as long as it remains under the 10 & 50 day moving averages.

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Dry Bulk Shipping Rates Report - 12/17/08 DRYS

The following is a report on Dry Bulk Shipping Rates for 12/17/08. This data is critical for how the DryBulk Shipping Stocks such as DryShips ( DRYS ), Excel Maritime Carriers ( EXM ), Diana Shipping ( DSX ), Genco Shipping ( GNX ), TBS International ( TBSI ), Navios Maritime ( NM ), and OceanFreight ( OCNF ) will trade during the day. As you probably know, the Dry Bulk Shipping index can tell you a lot about the state of the World Economy. When Bulk Shipping Rates are at all time highs, the World Economy is outstanding. When Bulk Shipping Rates are as low as they have been lately, it signifies that the world economy has come to a screeching halt.

Dry Bulk Shipping Rates - December 17th, 2008

Baltic Dry Index ( BDI ) - 836 Up 8
Baltic Cape Index ( BCI ) - 1515 Up 1
Baltic Panamax Index ( BPI ) - 514 Up 34
Baltic Supramax Index ( BSI ) - 476 Down 5

Past Bulk Shipping Rates

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Potash POT Analysis 12/17/08 - Technical Analysis

The following is technical analysis for Potash ( POT ). The chart you see is from weeks ago before Potash first closed back over the 10 day moving average causing this huge move up in share price to $80 today. I will have a new POT Chart tonight showing this analysis but due to regulations, you can't take snaps during trading hours.

Potash Technical Analysis December 17, 2008

As you can see, Potash closed back over the 10 day moving average several weeks ago just like previous times and exploded to the upside. It was important not to be early because there were several times where it almost closed over the 10 day, but failed, only to take out the previous lows. The bounce off of $47.54 was a huge up volume move and buyers were chasing Pot into the close. This was the signal that some of the shorts were starting to cover. The next day, we got confirmation of a close over $57 which was the 10 day moving average. While this was a huge $10 move in two was just the beginning of Pot's move which has happened two other times in the past several months.

Potash has made a major move so I would be cautious about buying above $75. Pot has closed back over the 50 day moving which is very bullish, so pullbacks to the 10 day moving average should be bought. POT has resistance from $81.54 - $85 and if these levels are cleared the next major resistance level is the Election High of $94.98. Pot has support at the $70 level where it stalled before making this last move higher as well as the 10 day moving average which is at $65.37. The 10 day moving average will be moving higher each trading session that goes by so keep that in mind. $47.54 will turn out to be a long term bottom for Potash and we all know, as evident in the past few weeks, the biggest moves come right after a stock bottoms.

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Dow Jones Open 12/17/08 - Stock Market

This more, the Dow Jones and Stock Market's are opening lower. Technology is getting hit because of Apple ( AAPL ) withdrawing from Macworld starting in 2010. This has investors fearing the health of Steve Jobs once again. Steve Jobs will not be giving the keynote address at this years Macworld. Apple has shown strong support around the $89 level in the past month so I am starting a small position Apple has 25 billion of cash sitting in the bank and while growth is slowing, they have one of the best businesses in the world. Not much downside from here. Apple also has some nice support at $85.

First Solar ( FSLR ) is a stock breaking out with nice volume this morning...keep an eye on ENER as well.

Stock Market Opening Prices December 17, 2008

Dow Jones Open - Down 105
Nasdaq Open - Down 22
S&P 500 Open - Down 13

Today's Biggest Gainers 12/17/08

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Today's Biggest Gainers - SAY DVAX 12/17/08

This morning 12/17/08, there are several hot stocks that are breaking out in pre market trading.

Today's Biggest Gainers December 17, 2008

Satyam Computer ( SAY ) - up 42% to $8.10 - This Indian company cancelled their plans to buy a few firms. Satyam, India's No. 4 software services exporter, bowed to investor outrage and cancelled the plans to buy two builders just 12 hours after the deals were announced.

Dynavax ( DVAX ) - Up 200% to .79% - GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) signed a partnership to develop treatments for immuno-inflammatory diseases with Dynavax Technologies Corp. (DVAX), which could eventually reap worth more than $800 million including all options.
Dynavax, a Berkeley, Calif., biopharmaceutical company, will get an initial payment of $10 million from the British drug maker. Dynavax will conduct research and early clinical development in up to four programs and could get total milestone payments of about $200 million per program.

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Dow Jones Futures 12/17/08 - Stock Market

The Dow Jones and Stock Market Futures are giving some of their gains today, 12/17/08, as futures are pointing lower in pre market trading. You are seeing profit taking across the board as well as a little nervousness about the auto bailout again as they still have not reached an agreement. As I stated in my technical analysis, we had a major breakout yesterday and I plan on buying any major pullback until the trend changes on me. The Dow Jones really needs to break out over 9000 for us to advance this move further. The Volatility Index has fallen significantly this week and that tells me people are comfortable owning stocks in the mid 8000 level. Another thing to watch today is Apple ( AAPL ). Apple came out with news last night about Mac World. They will be discontinuing this event after 2009. This announcement is creating some fear that Steve Jobs is having some health problems.

Stock Market Futures December 17, 2008

Dow Jones Futures - Down 110
Nasdaq Futures - Down 17
S&P 500 Futures - Down 12

Today's Biggest Gainers

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1 and 3 Month Libor Rates - 12/17/08 - Today's Libor Rates

It seems as though everyone is watching Libor rates these days. Today's Libor Rates for 12/17/08, are: 1 Month Libor Rate - .581% & 3 Month Libor Rate - 1.578%. The overnight Libor rate is .133%. As you can see, Libor Rates have changed today, December 17, 2008. Both 30 and 90 day Libor ticked down as well as the overnight Libor.
Here are Previous Libor rates. You can also compare Libor Rates to how the Dow Jones traded.

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