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Thursday, November 20, 2008

Dow Jones Analysis 11/21/08 - Stock Market

The following is Stock Market Technical Analysis for the Dow Jones ( DJIA ) for 11/21/08

Dow Jones Support & Resistance Levels - November 21, 2008

Resistance Levels: 7773, 8000, 8175

Support Levels: 7500, 7000

Today the Dow Jones broke the Oct 10th low's of 7773. You are seeing the Volatility Index ( VIX ) spike above 80 with this panic. We hit my first level of support at the close, between 7500-7600. If 7500 does not hold tomorrow I am looking for 6900-7100 to buy. It will most likely be quick and you could really get a rip roaring rally from that point. You might even see 8000 after 7000 is hit - It wouldn't surprise me at all in this stock market. The VIX could spike back into the 90's. Both 7773 and 8000 were support, but now will be resistance and people will be selling at these levels. Keep this in mind when you are trading. Also, a huge area of resistance is around 8175 -8190 which were the highs today.....when we close above this level, you could see a push up to 8500. Check out my previous Dow Jones Charts.

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Dow Jones Close 11/20/08 - Stock Market Closing Prices

Stock Market Closing Prices - 11/20/08

Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA ) Close - 7552.29 Down 445
Nasdaq Stock Market Close - 1316.12 Down 70.30
S&P 500 Close - 752.47 Down 54.12

Libor Rates - 11/20/08

1 Month - 1.40%
3 Month - 2.15%

Commodities Closing Prices - 11/20/08

Gold - 746
Oil - 49.60
Natural Gas - 6.28

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 7552 on 11/20/08, as investors woke up to crashing Asian Markets and the fact that our stock market closed below key support Dow 8000 yesterday. The Stock Market Futures actually went positive this morning when some Citigroup news came out. Citi stock traded $6.80's in pre market. That didn't last long though! Art Hogan and Art Cashin gave their comments on the stock market, both agreeing we will test the lows today. When the Stock Market opened, we hit 7776 on the dow and then bounced on word the big 3 automakers were getting some kind of bail out. This news sent General Motors ( GM ) and Ford ( F ) stock up significantly. It also took the Dow Jones Industrial Average to yesterdays support level ( which is now resistance ) 8175. When we hit 8175, we sank back down below the Art Hogan Bottom of Oct 10th. It turns out, we won't know about an Auto Bailout until December. Wall Street does not like this at all! We need clarity! There is a ton of money on the sidelines just waiting to get back in when the time is right, but there is no catalyst to buy stocks right now because we don't have clarity. When this money does end up coming back in, you could see two back to back 1000 point Dow Jones up days. The question is when??

I will post another technical chart of the Dow Jones tonight, you can find there HERE I continue to see support at 7500-7600 and also 7000 or just above. This would be a nice trade able area if you are actually trading this market like I have been doing. Right now its really tough out there, but it will all get better in time.

Biggest Gainers - November 20th, 2008

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General Motors ( GM ) Ford ( F )11/20/08 - Bailout

Senators in Washington are going to hold a news conference about a possible bailout agreement on the big three automakers including General Motors ( GM ) and Ford ( F ) at 2:30pm est today, 11/20/08.

Both GM and F stocks are exploding to the upside, General Motors actually hit $1.70 at one point today and is now back over $3.50 per share. Ford hit $1.01 per share and is now $1.70.

The Hogan Bottom held this morning, we bounced off the 7773 low and we are now testing 8175 resistance from yesterday which was support. Check out THESE charts for analysis. I will have a new chart tonight after the closing bell.

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Dow Jones Open 11/20/08 - Stock Market

The Dow Jones and Stock Market's are opening up weaker 11/20/08 as we are seeing following through on selling from yesterday. The Dow Jones is testing the 7773 intraday low and closing lows of Oct 10th, 2008. We actually hit 7776 and bounced. I will note however, ( AMZN ) VERY strong this morning. Watch Apple ( AAPL ) and Exxon Mobile ( XOM )...if these stocks can turn green the market will rally.

Dow Jones Opening Prices 11/20/08 - 10:40am

Dow Jones - 7857 Down 140
Nasdaq- 1368 Down 18
S&P 500 - 786 Down 20

Todays Biggest Gainers - Ambac ABK

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Hogan Bottom: Art Hogan 11/20/08 CNBC Comments

Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies & Company was on CNBC this morning, 11/20/08, and gave comments and stock market predictions. Art Hogan is popular for what CNBC calls, " The Hogan Bottom " due to his bottom call on October 10th, 2008 when everyone was panicking. Art Hogan boldly called the bottom on 10/10/08 and sure enough, so far it turns out he was right ( Although we will be testing Art Hogan's Bottom Call Today! ). Below is what he had to say November 20th, 2008. Previous Comments - HERE

Art Hogan CNBC Comments:

Its a difficult day to come back on CNBC, we breached the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing lows, I guess the Dow Jones could be next....the biggest changes were GM and the big three automakers, use of the tarp changed, financials down 22% over the past week. It's going to be a difficult morning. The problem is structurally things have changed!

Can we get a reversal today? We need clarity on the automotive industry, we'd also like to hear who the next Treasury Secretary will be for the next Administration. The market needs clarity!

Advice for us Art? It's going to be a tough couple of days, as soon as we find out a new plan of where we are going, the better we are going to be.

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Art Cashin CNBC 11/20/08 - Stock Market Comments

Art Cashin of UBS was on CNBC, 11/20/08, and gave some comments and opinion on the stock market. You can find all of Art Cashin's comments HERE

Art Cashin November 20th, 2008:

We have to take a look at the mark to market accounting rules because obviously nothing else is working right now, they are zeroing in on Citigroup C and other banks.

Today, we need to see if the Dow Jones tests and holds the Oct 10th intra day low level of 7773, see if it produces a meaningful bounce, if it breaks, you are probably looking at some cascade selling that follows. But for now, let hope 7773 on the Dow holds today.

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1 and 3 Month Libor Rates - 11/20/08 - Today's Libor Rates

It seems as though everyone is watching Libor rates these days. Today's Libor Rates for 11/20/08, are: 1 Month Libor Rate - 1.40% & 3 Month Libor Rate - 2.15%. The overnight Libor rate is 0.44%. As you can see, Libor Rates have changed today, November 20, 2008, for the better. Here are Previous Libor rates.

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Citigroup C 11/20/08 - Saudi Prince Upping Stake to 5%

Saudi Prince Alwaleed plans to up his stake in Citigroup ( C ) to 5%. This news is just crossing the wires on 11/20/08, Citigroup is up about 5% on this news to the $6.80's and it is turning the stock market futures around this morning. Citigroup has apparently raised 50 billion in private capital, something the market did not know.

This could be a big market mover today....stay tuned

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

Stock Market Futures 11/20/08 - Dow Jones

The Stock Market and Dow Jones Futures for 11/20/08 are set lower this morning. Heavy selling in the Asian and European Stock Markets took place over night. Futures do not look as bad as expected, but we closed below 8000 yesterday which is concerning.

Pre Market 11/20/08

Dow Jones ( DJIA ) Futures - Down 60
Nasdaq Futures - Down 10
S&P 500 Futures - Down 8

Nikkei Stock Market Close - 11/20/08 - 7703 Down 570

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