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Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Dow Jones Analysis 12/11/08 - Stock Market

The following is Technical Analysis for the Dow Jones ( DJIA ) for 12/11/08

Dow Jones Support & Resistance Levels - December 11, 2008

Resistance Levels: 8850, 9000
Support Levels: 8600, 8500

The Dow Jones is stuck in a trading range right now between the 10 day moving average and 50 day moving I am neutral right now. I am looking for a major move to occur over the next week as to where we are headed next. A close over 9000 and I will be bullish, a close below 8500 and I turn bearish as the downtrend will start again. I don't think 8150 support will hold if we go down and test it again.
All eyes are on the auto bailout right now....and it appears its not a lock to pass the Senate on Friday. The markets can really go either way right now and that is why I am neutral.

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Nasdaq Analysis 12/11/08 - December 11, 2008

The following is Technical Analysis for the Nasdaq ( NAS ) for 12/11/08

Nasdaq Support & Resistance Levels - December 11, 2008

Resistance Levels: 1600
Support Levels: 1536, 1500

The Nasdaq appears to have topped out at 1602.92 so any close above this level and I think it could test 1675-1700. This would also be the first time the Nasdaq closed back over the 50 day moving average ( Red Line ) which is currently at 1621.77. This would be bullish!
The Nasdaq is looking good technically but if you get a close under 1500 we might go down to test 1400-1450 with bounces back up to the 10 day moving average. This is what you don't want to see as the downtrend would continue and bring more selling pressure to the Nasdaq.

Bottom Line: Things are looking strong....keep an eye on the 10 day moving average and both the 1500 level on the downside and 1600 on the upside. Volume Has Been Rather Weak Lately which is a sign this rally could be fizzling out.

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Dow Jones Close 12/10/08 - Stock Market

Stock Market Closing Prices - 12/10/08

Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA ) Close - 8761.42 Up 70.09
Nasdaq Stock Market Close - 1565.48 Up 18.14
S&P 500 Close - 899.24 Up 10.57

Libor Rates - 12/10/08

1 Month - 1.44%
3 Month - 2.10%

Commodities Closing Prices - 12/10/08

Gold - 809.5
Oil - 43.68
Natural Gas - 5.70

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8761.42 on 12/10/08, as stocks were all over the place today with mixed news on the auto bailout. The Stock Market futures were up nicely this morning in early trading. The Dow Jones hit a high of 8879 which is right at the 50 day moving average and tested its 10 day moving average at the end of the day ( 8606 ). Get ready for some more volatility in the coming weeks as the 10 day and 50 day moving averages are coming closer together and there will be a real bull / bear fight with which we go next. You started to see it today with the Dow erasing a two hundred point gain by 2pm. I will have technical analysis of the stock market tonight, Right Here

Now, back to the auto bailout! There was a report out that a deal was reached, stocks took off, and now we have reports some republicans will be voting against it and its not a done deal by any means. The House might vote on the deal as early as tonight and Friday the Senate could vote. It will be another bailout weekend coming up. From what I can tell, it is not certain whether this deal will pass or not. If it doesn't, you will see the markets tank as the fear of bankruptcy will sober this latest rally. If the deal passes, you might get a pop, but for the most part, it is already priced into the market.

Oil showed some bullish action today after horrible supply data came out at 10am. Oil gave up a 5% gain and then soared from even to back up 5%. This is the type of action you want to see if your trying to pick a bottom. It is not clear whether we have hit a bottom at $42...but its something to keep an eye on.

More of Today's Articles - Dry Bulk Shipping Rates - Meredith Whitney on the Financials

Today's Biggest Gainers - December 10, 2008

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Dry Bulk Shipping Rates Report - 12/10/08 DRYS

The following is a report on Dry Bulk Shipping Rates for 12/10/08. This data is critical for how the DryBulk Shipping Stocks such as DryShips ( DRYS ), Excel Maritime Carriers ( EXM ), Diana Shipping ( DSX ), Genco Shipping ( GNX ), TBS International ( TBSI ), Navios Maritime ( NM ), and OceanFreight ( OCNF ) will trade during the day. As you probably know, the Dry Bulk Shipping index can tell you a lot about the state of the World Economy. When Bulk Shipping Rates are at all time highs, the World Economy is outstanding. When Bulk Shipping Rates are as low as they have been lately, it signifies that the world economy has come to a screeching halt. Most of the stocks above are getting a huge bounce today as the stock market bounces back. This could be due to the fact that the Baltic Dry and Baltic Cap index have been rebounding lately. Nevertheless, these indexes are down almost 95% from the highs as iron ore shipments have come to a halt.

Dry Bulk Shipping Rates - December 10, 2008

Baltic Dry Index ( BDI ) - 691 Up 12
Baltic Cape Index ( BCI ) - 1058 Up 67
Baltic Panamax Index ( BPI ) - 450 Down 16
Baltic Supramax Index ( BSI ) - 511 Down 12

Past Bulk Shipping Rates

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Dow Jones Open 12/10/08 - Stock Market

This morning, the Dow Jones and Stock Market's are opening higher but seem to be weak as we await the potential auto bailout decision today, 12/10/08. Oil is gapping higher over $44 per barrel. This is something to watch. I am watching for the USO to break above $36.20 for a possible reversal to the upside after falling from $45 per share in the past few weeks. Pre Market volume was very strong. Dryships ( DRYS ) continues to run with the bulk shipping stocks but is off the highs. I am not doing much today, just waiting for the Auto Bailout Decision and watching how the market reacts. The markets are looking toppy short term but this auto bailout will move them one way or the other. The only thing I own right now is a small position in QID.

Stock Market Opening Prices December 10, 2008

Dow Jones Open - Up 70
Nasdaq Open - Up 16
S&P 500 Open - Up 8

Today's Biggest Gainers

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Stocks To Watch 12/10/08 - December 10, 2008

The following stocks are breaking out today 12/10/08, in pre market trading. These stocks will be the hottest stocks of the day:

Today's Biggest Gainers - December 10, 2008

Genworth Financial ( GNW )
DrysShips ( DRYS )
Excel Marinetime Carriers ( EXM )
General Motors ( GPM )
Sino Global Shipping ( SINO )

Other Stocks to Watch:

Apple ( AAPL ) is lower in pre market trading...I think this has something to do with the Iphone coming to Wal Mart and also Morgan Stanley is out giving Apple Negative Comments do to weak demand.

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Meredith Whitney CNBC 12/10/08 - December 10

Meredith Whitney from Oppenheimer was on CNBC 12/10/08, and gave her comments on where she stands on the credit crisis and the housing market.

Meredith, what are your current fears? I fear the consumer has not been a part of what happened to wall street and the massive liquidity problem that has gone on with the banks. Consumers now risk losing their jobs, having liquidity withdrawn because of the problem. Banks will start to cut credit card lines and some consumers will be not be able to get credit cards and this will cut consumer spending in a big way. As you know, the consumer fuels our economy.

Financials ( BIG BANKS ) will be on life support for the next 18-36 months, they won't fail but they won't grow for the next two years. These banks are getting diluted and it doesn't help shareholders.

Asset prices continue to go lower, 5 banks are funding 2/3rds of mortgage market.

I am Expecting home prices to fall another 20%, homeowner rates will get cut back to 65%.

Is there anything we can do? We have to have big banks to survive for a confidence point of view. We have to have money help the regional banks to get money flowing through the system. I don't think there is anything you can do for the mortgage market however. The housing market problem is to big to fix. This is not an apocalyptic situation however, because housing prices doubled since 2000 so a 40% correction has just put many people in a bad situation. It does affect new buyers because they don't want to buy a house if they fear it will be worth less in a few months.

View all of Meredith Whitney's comments right here.

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1 and 3 Month Libor Rates - 12/10/08 - Today's Libor Rates

It seems as though everyone is watching Libor rates these days. Today's Libor Rates for 12/10/08, are: 1 Month Libor Rate - 1.439% & 3 Month Libor Rate - 2.099%. The overnight Libor rate is .125%. As you can see, Libor Rates have changed today, December 10, 2008, both 1 month and 3 month Libor fell today, a very good sign for the credit markets. The overnight Libor Rate went down the most! Here are Previous Libor rates. You can also compare Libor Rates to how the Dow Jones traded.

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Dow Jones Futures 12/10/08 - Stock Market

How will the Stock Market open today, 12/10/08? The Stock Market and Dow Jones Futures are pointed higher this morning as the Auto Bailout is getting closer to a done deal. The White House and Congress reach in agreement on principle on 15 billion dollar bailout for the big three automakers. A government car czar would be appointed by President Bush as well.

In other news, after yesterdays close, Electronic Arts ( ERTS ) warned on earnings, Rio Tinto ( RTP ) plans to cut 14,000 jobs.

From a technical standpoint, we are looking good for the Nasdaq and Dow Jones for the remainder of the year.

Stock Market Futures - December 10th, 2008

Dow Jones Futures - Up 142
Nasdaq Futures - Up 17
S&P 500 Futures - Up 13

Today's Biggest Gainers - Pre Market

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