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Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Dow Jones Analysis 11/28/08 - Stock Market

The following is Stock Market Technical Analysis for the Dow Jones ( DJIA ) for 11/28/08

Dow Jones Support & Resistance Levels - November 28, 2008

Resistance Levels: 8923.18, 9000, 9300

Support Levels: 8600, 8500, 8311

The Dow Jones has made its 4th straight up day closing over strong resistance of 8500-8600. We bounced off the 10 day moving average for the second straight day at around 8300. This is what you want to see if you are long this market. The only downside was the volume was light. The next level of resistance I am looking at is the 8923.18 high from mid November. If we can close above this level you could really get a nice spike to the 50 day moving average which is currently just under 9300. Dow 9000 will be tough to get through however, even harder then the 8500-8600 level today. Speaking of 8500, that is where I am putting my stop loss order... if we close under 8500 at any point, I think the selling comes right back into the market. Bottom Line - I am still very bullish here with a tight stop. Monday the volume will come back and we will see if this rally was for real!

The Stock Market ends at 1pm Est on Friday, November 28th, for the Holiday.

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Dow Jones Close 11/26/08 - Stock Market Closing Prices

Stock Market Closing Prices - 11/26/08

Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA ) Close - 8726.61 Up 247.14
Nasdaq Stock Market Close - 1532.10 Up 67.37
S&P 500 Close - 887.64 Up 30.25

Libor Rates - 11/26/08

1 Month - 1.43%
3 Month - 2.18%

Commodities Closing Prices - 11/26/08

Gold - 815
Oil - 54.84
Natural Gas - 6.80

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8726.61 on 11/26/08, as the stock market shrugged off horrible economic data like durable goods and jobless claims to stage a 4th consecutive day of gains. The Dow Jones was down over 100 points at one point but by 10am it started the recovery to close up big today. Even the India Terrorist Attacks could not hurt these stock markets. Things are looking really good for the markets right now and we have broken out of a tough trading range of 8300-8600 on the Dow Jones. I will post new technical analysis later, HERE . I have now moved my stop order from 8280 to 8500 on the Dow Jones. The next level I am looking at is 8923.18. Keep in mind, today was a very light volume day and Friday will be as well. We will know if this rally is for real on Monday when everyone is back at their trading desks. One stock to note, Chesapeake Energy ( CHK ) has broken out today to close above $20. This is a very bullish sign for the stock.

Today's Biggest Gainers - November 26th, 2008

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Terrorist Attacks Mumbai India 11/26/08

There were some terrorist attacks in Mumbai India today, 11/26/08, and it appears to be starting to effect the stock markets. The Dow Jones has come off its highs this afternoon. Keep an eye on this situation. There appears to be 12 people killed now and Hotels are on fire. You are seeing oil go up on this news also.

Nov. 26, 2008 (Bloomberg) -- Three people were killed and 25 injured in multiple attacks across India’s financial capital, with shots fired near luxury hotels and the city’s main railway station, CNN-IBN reported.
The shootings took place at the Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus, formerly known as Victoria Terminus, one of the two stations in downtown Mumbai, CNN-IBN said. There were also reports of explosions and continued firing, the channel said.

Full Article

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Biggest Stock Gainers 11/26/08 - November 26

The following list is the Top Stock Gainers Today, 11/26/08 - These stocks are straight up breaking out today.

Also, a little update on the Dow Jones - We are grinding it out in here between 8500-8600....I never said it would be easy but if we can close above 8600 today I expect another good day Friday. The Volatility Index ( VIX ) has come down to 56 today..very bullish! On a bearish note, the volume isn't that strong due to people being on vacation. Friday will be even worse given that we will close at 1pm. Monday, December 1st will be key!

Hottest Stocks November 26th, 2008

Pilgrams Pride ( PPC ) -NYSE - $1.28 up 137% - Oversold, nice Up Volume
Thornburg Mortgage ( TMA ) - NYSE - $.48 up 59% - Oversold up with FRE & FNM
Fannie Mae ( FNM ) - NYSE - .72 Up 53% - New CFO Named
Freddie Mac ( FRE ) - NYSE - $.80 Up 50% - Going up with FNM
General Motors ( GM ) - NYSE - $5.25 Up 48% - Oversold, Analyst: Bailout Likely
Emcore ( EMKR ) - Nasdaq - $2.03 Up 44% - Oversold,
Ford ( F ) - NYSE - $2.15 Up 30% - Analyst: Bailout Likely

Full List

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Stock Market Open 11/26/08 - Dow Jones

The Stock Market and Dow Jones are shaking off some bad economic data from this morning and going up off their lows. The Dow Jones opened up down about 140 but has now come back to only down 40 at 8440. As I noted in my Dow Jones Chart, we are stuck in a range from 8300 to 8600. The 10 day moving average is right at 8299 so a close below this would not be good. If we can get a close over 8500 and 8600 I think we start a new leg up vs this latest rally selling off. That is how I am playing it! The 10 day moving average held again this morning, but we still have a lot of trading left. I still have my Mercadolibre MELI position with a stop at $10, my Google ( GOOG ) position with a stop at $276, and a new Chesapeake Energy ( CHK ) position with a stop at $18. I might be a little bit early on CHK but I think if we get a close over $19 it could really start rocking. The real fireworks will happen with a close over $25. Citigroup ( C ) is also breaking out today....check out my chart from yesterday.

Check out Today's Art Cashin Comments and Meredith Whitney Comments

Today's Biggest Gainers - November 26th, 2008

General Motors GM is one of the biggest gainers up 20% to $4.28

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Art Cashin CNBC 11/26/08 - Market Bottom

Art Cashin was on CNBC 11/26/08, and gave comments about where we are in the stock market after this nice three day gain. You can see all of Art's past comments HERE.

What do we have to be Thankful for Art? Well, we Survived the year so far....feels very much like we're getting close to a bottom here.

Concern is growing that Bernanke thinks we are still at the edge of the cliff, and this is holding the markets back right now.

The market runs ahead of a bad economy, the stock market will rally well before we get out of this mess. We have a major move coming and I'm hoping its to the upside but we might get one more final washout. This is starting to look like the 1982 bottom.

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POT - Potash Analysis 11/26/08 - Potash ( POT ) Technical Analysis Nov 26, 2008

The following is Technical Analysis for Potash ( POT ). You can see the chart HERE

Potash ( POT ) Support and Resistance Levels - 11/26/08

Support - $55
Resistance - $65, $70

Potash ( POT ) is fighting with this $60 level after making a low at $54.80....There is major resistance at the 10 day moving average which is currently at $65 per share. As soon as we get a close over this level, I will be taking a long position with a tight stop. The last time this happened, we had a $23 move in 5 days. For me, there is no reason to get into this stock until Pot closes back over the 10 day moving average. When this trade plays out for me, I see a nice upside between $70-$80 per share. Until then, I will not fight the downtrend unless I try to trade it intraday.

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1 and 3 Month Libor Rates - 11/26/08 - Today's Libor Rates

It seems as though everyone is watching Libor rates these days. Today's Libor Rates for 11/26/08, are: 1 Month Libor Rate - 1.43% & 3 Month Libor Rate - 2.18%. The overnight Libor rate is 0.99%. As you can see, Libor Rates have changed today, November 26, 2008, the overnight Libor Rate shot up but the other two have come down. Here are Previous Libor rates. You can also compare Libor Rates to how the Dow Jones traded.

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Stock Market Futures 11/26/08 - Dow Jones

The Stock Market and Dow Jones Futures are lower on 11/26/08, as we have had a huge three day run and it appears investors are taking a little bit of profits before the Thanksgiving Holiday. Things could get even worse later as initial jobless claims come out at 8:30am est as well as New Home Sales at 10am est. Meredith Whitney gave some comments this morning on Bloomberg, make sure you check those out.

Check out my Dow Jones Technical Analysis for today. I will be watching the 8280-8300 closely.

Stock Market Futures - Pre Market Trading - November 26, 2008

Dow Jones Futures - Down 95
Nasdaq Futures - Down 16
S&P 500 Futures - Down 11
Nikkei Close - 8213 Down 111

Today's Biggest Gainers - 11/26/08

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Meredith Whitney Bloomberg 11/26/08 - Citigroup C

Meredith Whitney of Oppenheimer was on Bloomberg today, 11/26/08, and she had comments on Citigroup ( C ) and the current financial crisis. Meredith Whitney warned people in August before this whole downturn, so I always find what she has to say interesting. She called this financial crisis before anyone over a year ago and she has even received death threats, but she has been right! On November 5th, 2008 - Meredith boldly came on CNBC's closing bell and told viewers there were still major problems with Citi and other financial stocks, predicting C stock would fall into the single digits. Citigroup was trading at $13.50 at that point. Friday, Citi stock sunk under $4 per share.

Meredith Whitney Comments - November 26, 2008 - Bloomberg

Citigroup ( C ) Bailout

Have we seen the Bottom for Citigroup? Its hard to say if the Fed's move will stop the slide of Citigroup stock. The cost of Citi's debt capital has soared.....the issue with the monies is that it just goes to plug holes....they look great this week, but by the fourth quarter they will look worse.

Banks are hoarding cash, consumers are hoarding cash, capital demands are changing and increasing on a daily basis. Assets are going to get cheaper from here on out, people aren't ready to catch a falling knife yet.

TARP 3.0 - Terms of the Tarp 3.0 deal were so beneficial to Citi, every single financial company has toxic assets and are carrying them at big levels. Some banks are reluctant to admit they need more capital....most banks are carrying bad assets just like Citigroup. Nothing will improve as long as there is asset deflation. It may take as many as five years to turn financials around.

To blame Vikram Pandit and not blame the board of directors is a bad call....Vikram Pandit was dealt a very bad hand when he came to Citigroup.

Earnings Growth - The Capital the banks are raising right now is going to plug holes, we will look back in a year and say, wow, those balance sheets were worse then we thought.

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