My First Solar FSLR Stock Buy / Trade - Trading FSLR

June 13, 2009 - Thinking about trading First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) stock or investing for the long term? I have been thinking about it myself now that the stock as come down from a double topped high of around $205-$207 in May 2009.

From a technical point of view, you can see that First Solar recently broke support of around $160. This prompted another quick move down to $150. I originally thought $150 would hold but as the Dow Jones and overall stock market started falling, oil prices did so as well. When you have both of these things falling at once, traders tend to go after the solar stocks for a bear raid.

I'm thinking $140 could be the area where I will buy FSLR stock. But here is the trick, a trick that has been working for a long time with many stocks such as First Solar. I want to buy FSLR either for the long term or just a trade when the stock CLOSES over the 10 day moving average (blue line ). FSLR has not closed over this level in a month and the longer a stock such as First Solar stays below the 10 day, the bigger the move higher when it actually does.

My First Solar Trading Plan:

Buy half of the position on the first close over the 10 day moving average, if it fails to hold several days after, buy the other half on the next close over the 10 day moving average.

This is what I plan to do!!

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Dow Jones 10, 50 , 200 Day Moving Averages - Alert

The Dow Jones along with the other major stock market averages ( NASDAQ, S&P 500 ) are very weak today after Nouriel Roubini has made another bearish call on the stock market. Given how high oil prices have risen over the past three months, Roubini is predicting a significant stock market correction.

Dow Jones 50 Day Moving Average Alert!

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I started to get cautious last week as the Dow Jones closed below 8500 for the first time in a little while but more notably, closed back below the 10 and 200 day moving averages. This was a very bearish sign.

Today, June 22 - 2009, the Dow Jones is testing the 50 day moving average at 8379 and so far it has held. The 50 day moving average will continue to rise over the next week and if the Dow closes below this level, there is major downside risk to the stocks. The next major support level is 8250, a level the Dow Jones held on a closing basis several times on the last pullback. If this fails, I will be looking for Dow 8000.

Keep an eye on this situation!!!!!

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Potash POT Technical Analysis 12/1/08 - Dec 1st

You've probably noticed that I have been writing about Potash ( POT ) lately! It is because in my opinion, I believe there is a nice upside possibility on the near horizon. While the stock market appears to be breaking down technically after a huge one week run, I am very close to buying Potash ( POT ) in a major way. I need POT to close above the 10 day moving average first and I would love if it did that today in this bad market because when we have a green day, Potash would be a leader and get an even great bump higher.

As of today, the ten day moving average is right at $62.12, we haven't closed over the 10 day level since the Obama rally back in early November. That last run took Pot stock from $70 to $95 in 6 trading sessions. You can see that the potential is there for a nice gainer when this trade plays out. POT is currently at $60, so as of now, I won't be buying POT. Patience is the key because in the past few weeks, every time POT has tested the 10 day it has failed and gone lower. One of these days this trend will reverse and I will be buying. I will not be buying all at once, I will average up!

In this current stock market, it is all about NOT losing money! When I buy, I will be keeping a very tight stop to protect me from losing money. Most traders try to catch a falling knife and have gotten killed this year. I have been sitting on my hands for awhile now waiting to see some strength in this stock to take a long position.

To be continued.............

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POT - Potash Analysis 11/26/08 - Potash ( POT ) Technical Analysis Nov 26, 2008

The following is Technical Analysis for Potash ( POT ). You can see the chart HERE

Potash ( POT ) Support and Resistance Levels - 11/26/08

Support - $55
Resistance - $65, $70

Potash ( POT ) is fighting with this $60 level after making a low at $54.80....There is major resistance at the 10 day moving average which is currently at $65 per share. As soon as we get a close over this level, I will be taking a long position with a tight stop. The last time this happened, we had a $23 move in 5 days. For me, there is no reason to get into this stock until Pot closes back over the 10 day moving average. When this trade plays out for me, I see a nice upside between $70-$80 per share. Until then, I will not fight the downtrend unless I try to trade it intraday.

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Dow Jones 11/17/08 - Stock Market Analysis

The following chart is technical analysis for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA ) for 11/17/08. What will the Dow Jones do on November 17th. 2008? We had a big technical sell off at the end of the day, basically as you can see on the chart, we tested the 10 day moving average and it was rejected. Technical Traders rule the stock market right now as almost no stocks are trading on fundamentals. You are seeing these huge moves because support and resistance levels are being hit. It is important to recognize them so you don't make a horrible trade. The 10 day moving average right now is probably more important then any other time, the buyers and sellers are fighting a war around this line. We need to close above the 10 day moving average and stay above it, this will get people bullish.

Dow Jones Technical Analysis 11/17/08

The Dow Jones has made a double bottom under 8000 but is still in a downtrend. Under 8000 looks to be a great place to buy after unloading in the 9000's. Until we close above 9800....this is your trading range. Notice how we stopped at 9653.95 after closing above the 10 day moving average for six straight days and then crashed back under two days later....this is bearish. The 10 day couldn't even hold! We have now tried to close back over the 10 day moving average twice ( Nov 10th, Nov 14th ) and it was rejected. You can't even think about getting bullish until we close back over the 10 day moving average for a few days. The Dow Jones closing low is 8175 and if we close below this at any point, it could get ugly.

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Dryships ( DRYS ) Technical Analysis November 2008

The following report is technical analysis on Dryships ( DRYS ):

Dryships Drys is showing signs of a turnaround although we are in the early stages. DRYS closed over the 10 day moving average for three straight days today, the most since it traded between $65-$80 per share. Right now we have major resistance between $24-$26 per share...as soon as we break $26 I am getting long because this will show me that buyers are willing to " pay up " to own drys. You would also get short covering since a key resistance level has been broken. Also, pullbacks to $18 could be bought but use a tight stop at the 10 day moving average. Drys sank like a rock over the past 3 months, so if you do get that close over $26, there are huge gaps at $30-$38 & $39-$54....the upside could be huge!

http://www.blackberrystocks.com/charts.html


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