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Thursday, December 4, 2008

Dow Jones Analysis 12/5/08 - Stock Market


The following is Stock Market Technical Analysis for the Dow Jones ( DJIA ) for 12/5/08


Dow Jones Support & Resistance Levels - December 5, 2008


Resistance Levels: 8500, 8675


Support Levels: 8359, 8150, 8000



The Dow Jones tested Friday's low of 8675 which was resistance but failed at 8632 and sold off back to the 10 day moving average. Like the Nasdaq, this has been the trading range lately. The Dow managed to close over the 10 day moving average so things are still looking bullish. Resistance is at 8675 and 8831... Support is still the 10 day moving average which will spike tomorrow to around 8390. There is also support between 8150-8175. A close below 8000 at any point could start a new leg down. Friday's Jobs number will be huge and it could set the tone for the next several weeks.


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Nasdaq Technical Analysis 12/05/08 - Dec 5, 2008


The following is Technical Analysis for the Nasdaq ( NAS ) for 12/05/08


Nasdaq Support & Resistance Levels - December 5, 2008


Resistance Levels: 1500, 1535
Support Levels: 1400, 1295



The Nasdaq failed at 1500 this morning, 12/5/08, and it was sold back to the 10 day moving average yet again. This has been the trading range over the past week and although we ended down today, the trading action is still bullish. Tomorrow we get the jobs number, a huge event that will move the markets and set the stage for the coming weeks and maybe even the rest of the month. Nasdaq has major resistance at 1500 and 1535, a close over 1535 and you could easily see 1600 be tested rather quickly. On the downside, 1400 must hold on a closing basis, if we close back under 1400 at any point with volume, the sellers will be lining up to sell.
Friday's Job's Report will be a big event!


For Technical Analysis of the Dow, go HERE


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Dow Jones Close 12/4/08 - Stock Market Closing Prices

Stock Market Closing Prices - 12/04/08

Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA ) Close - 8376.24 Down 215.45
Nasdaq Stock Market Close - 1445.56 Down 46.82
S&P 500 Close - 845.22 Down 25.52
http://dowjonesclose.com

Libor Rates - 12/04/08

1 Month - 1.88%
3 Month - 2.19%

Commodities Closing Prices - 12/04/08

Gold - 766
Oil - 43.72
Natural Gas - 6.02

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8376.24 on 12/04/08, as Wall Street dealt more earnings warnings and job cuts from companies such as Dupont, Adobe, AT&T, and Advanced Micro Devices. The Stock Market's were up briefly this morning but stocks began to fall as Ben Bernanke spoke before the hearing for the big three automakers began. Investors were also positioning their portfolios for the highly anticipated jobs report and unemployment rate tomorrow. Art Cashin said today that he thinks a 300,000 - 350,000 job loss number is priced into the market, but he has heard of some figures as high as 400,000. Friday will be a volatile day! To no surprise, we moved hard in the last hour, this time to the downside. The Dow Jones went below the 10 day moving average of 8359 as General Motors ( GM ) hit $4 per share but rallied back over this level in the final minutes of trading. After hitting resistance at 1500, the Nasdaq failed also. I will have technical analysis of the markets tonight, right HERE

Volatility Index ( VIX ) - 12/04/08 - The VIX spiked back to around 65 during today's last hour plunge.

Today's Biggest Gainers - December 4, 2008

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Dry Bulk Shipping Rates Report - 12/4/08

The following is a report on Dry Bulk Shipping Rates for 12/04/08. This data is critical for how the DryBulk Shipping Stocks such as DryShips ( DRYS ), Excel Maritime Carriers ( EXM ), Diana Shipping ( DSX ), Genco Shipping ( GNX ), TBS International ( TBSI ), Navios Maritime ( NM ), and OceanFreight ( OCNF ) will trade during the day. As you probably know, the Dry Bulk Shipping index can tell you a lot about the state of the World Economy. When Bulk Shipping Rates are at all time highs, the World Economy is outstanding. When Bulk Shipping Rates are as low as they have been lately, it signifies that the world economy has come to a screeching halt.

Dry Bulk Shipping Rates - December 4, 2008

Baltic Dry Index ( BDI ) - 666 Down 6
Baltic Cape Index ( BCI ) - 839 Up 9
Baltic Panamax Index ( BPI ) - 525 Down 14
Baltic Supramax Index ( BSI ) - 564 Down 15
Past Bulk Shipping Rates

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Stock Market Trading Report 12/04/08 - Dow Jones

The Stock Market and Dow Jones are moving into both positive territory and negative territory today. The Big Three Automaker CEO's are getting set to speak in front on Congress and I don't think its a guarantee that they will get bailed out. We also have a jobs number that will be brutal tomorrow morning at 8:30am, so right now that markets are at a stalemate. The Nasdaq keeps hitting resistance of roughly 1500 and failing, this is something to watch as we close today.

The Biggest winner on my screen today is DryShips ( DRYS ). This stock has been beaten down with all the other dry bulk shipping stocks. It appears to be an oversold bounce as Shipping Rates continue to fall. Bulk Shipping rates were over $200,000 per ship earlier this year and are down around $750. Business has come to a halt and this is why DRYS went from $100 per share to $4.50 per share. Karen Finerman on CNBC Fast Money own Diana Shipping ( DSX ) long. She says if you have to own a bulk shipper, Diana has the best balance sheet.

The home building stocks are also getting a bounce today. Beazer Homes ( BZH ) stock is up 24%.

All I own right now is a Google ( GOOG ) position and bought some QID this morning to protect in going into tomorrow. Sold RIMM when it failed to break $40, when it gets over $40 I will be the first one back in.

Check out Art Cashin's comments from this morning!

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Art Cashin Comments CNBC 12/04/08 - Bottom?

Art Cashin, UBS Floor Trader on the NYSE, was on CNBC 12/4/08 and gave his comments on the stock market today.


Art Cashin CNBC Comments 12/4/08

With the News today, is there any way we can shake it off?

A lot of this negative economic stuff is kinda of catch up news priced in, its a good sign to get negative news and close up on the stock markets. We are still in a trading range, but its comforting to be closing up on bad news. This is a sign the market is bottoming!

Do you have a jobs number that's priced into the market for tomorrow? 300-350,000 is priced in, i'm hearing a number as high as 400,000 jobs lost tomorrow. Revisions will be something to watch as October's job loss could get revised higher.

We think the big three automakers will get some sort of bailout.

For all of Art Cashin's comments, go HERE

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SP 500 Analysis 12/04/08 - Dec 4, 2008


The following is Technical Analysis for the S&P 500 for 12/04/08


S&P 500 Support & Resistance Levels - December 4, 2008


Resistance Levels: 871, 897
Support Levels: 850, 845, 839




The S&P 500 is back over 850, a key battle ground lately. This is a level I have been watching for the past several weeks. When we break this level, we shoot to the upside, when we break this level to the downside, we plunge. Lately, the S&P 500 has based right around the 10 day moving average at about 839, this is where I have seen buyers step in. Another close below the 10 day moving average will be viewed as bearish and we could go down to test 800 again.
On the Upside, if we close above 897, I think you could see a huge rally to test 950 and above.


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European Central Bank Cuts Rates 12/04/08

Breaking News: Today, 12/04/08, the European Central Banks ( ECB ) just cut key interest rates by 75 basis points to 2.50%.

In other news just breaking, Wal Mart ( WMT ) same store sales were up 3.4% in November and this is sending shares of Wal Mart higher in Pre Market today to $55.25.


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1 and 3 Month Libor Rates - 12/04/08 - Today's Libor Rates

It seems as though everyone is watching Libor rates these days. Today's Libor Rates for 12/4/08, are: 1 Month Libor Rate - 1.88% & 3 Month Libor Rate - 2.19%. The overnight Libor rate is .52%. As you can see, Libor Rates have changed today, December 4, 2008, all three Libor Rates went down again, a very good sign for the credit markets. The overnight Libor Rate dropped the most!

Here are Previous Libor rates. You can also compare Libor Rates to how the Dow Jones traded.

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Dow Jones Futures - 12/04/08 - Stock Market

The Dow Jones and Stock Market Futures are mixed this morning, 12/4/08, as they have come off their worse level from last night. The Dow was actually down 96 at one point. Yesterday, the Dow Jones rallied for seven out of eight trading sessions. I'm watching to see if the Dow Jones can hold 8500 and 8323 which are key support levels.

Stock Market Futures - December 4, 2008

Dow Jones Futures - Down 40
Nasdaq Futures - Down 11
S&P 500 Futures - Down 4.5

Weighting on the Nasdaq today will be Adobe Systems ( ADBE ) as this company came out last night and gave a horrible outlook and said they will cut 600 full time jobs. Watch this stock today!

Today's Biggest Gainers - 12/4/08

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