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Monday, December 1, 2008

Stock Market Futures 12/02/08 - Dow Jones

The Stock Market and Dow Jones futures are pointed slightly higher for 12/2/08 after one of the worst days ever for the Dow Jones today. Check out technical analysis for the Dow Jones for December 2nd, 2008.

Stock Market Futures - 12/02/08

Dow Jones Futures - Up 67
Nasdaq Futures - Up 5.50
S&P 500 Futures - Up 6.25

Nikkei 8011 Down 385

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Dow Jones Analysis 12/2/08 - Stock Market


The following is Stock Market Technical Analysis for the Dow Jones ( DJIA ) for 12/2/08


Dow Jones Support & Resistance Levels - December 2, 2008


Resistance Levels: 8292, 8500

Support Levels: 8000, 7773



Today, the Dow Jones broke through all three support levels and closed back below the 10 day moving average. This is very bearish and shows us that last weeks rally was just a typical bear market rally. At some point tomorrow, i'd expect us to retest 8000 and we could get a bounce off this level given the declines today. If we close back below 8000 we will test 7773 and 7449. If we do get down this low, keep your eye on 7181. This was the 2002 low that we bounced off of before hitting highs in 2007. If we close below 7181, it could get really ugly. Holding 8000 will avoid all of this! On the upside, I'd get bullish on a close back over the 10 day moving average, currently at 8292.

Bottom Line: Waiting and Watching for these support and resistance levels to play out


There is major support in the 7181 area to the 7400 area for the Dow Jones. These levels were hit back in 1998 and also 2002. We bounced higher off of these levels both times.



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Dow Jones Close 12/1/08 - Stock Market Closing Prices

Stock Market Closing Prices - 12/01/08

Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA ) Close - 8149.09 Down 681
Nasdaq Stock Market Close - 1398 Down 137.50
S&P 500 Close - 816.17 Down 80

Libor Rates - 12/1/08

1 Month - 1.91%
3 Month - 2.22%

Commodities Closing Prices - 12/01/08

Gold - 770
Oil - 49.13
Natural Gas - 6.56

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8149 on 12/1/08, as investors sold stocks following a huge week of gains last week. The Stock Market Futures were down this morning after Asian and European markets fell overnight. We gapped below Friday's low of 8762 which was a bad sign so I sold out of all but a small position in Google ( GOOG ) that I am holding. I was tempted to buy some of the short etf's such as QID & SKF but didn't pull the trigger. I am waiting on the sidelines for more trades to develop such as Potash ( POT ). I would also like to buy back Mercadolibre ( MELI ) at some point after letting it go at $12 this morning. It turns out we are officially in a recession and it started back in December of 2007. At the end of the day today, the Dow Jones broke through the lows and also the 10 day moving average. This is very bearish! This has me thinking that we will go back and test 8000 soon which is the next major support level for the Dow Jones. I will have a new chart posted HERE later today. Meredith Whitney was on CNBC this afternoon, 12/1/08 and basically echoed what she said on Wednesday during her Bloomberg interview. She ended the interview today by saying her biggest sell in the financials right now is Wells Fargo ( WFC ).

For now, I will wait and not get back into any new positions until we either test 8000 or close back over 8500. This limits risk by a mile.

Volatility Index ( VIX ) - 12/1/08

The VIX spiked back over 65 today closing at 67.30. When we hit the 80's we usually get a nice bounce in the markets so monitor this indicator closely.

Today's Biggest Gainers - 12/1/08


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Potash POT Technical Analysis 12/1/08 - Dec 1st

You've probably noticed that I have been writing about Potash ( POT ) lately! It is because in my opinion, I believe there is a nice upside possibility on the near horizon. While the stock market appears to be breaking down technically after a huge one week run, I am very close to buying Potash ( POT ) in a major way. I need POT to close above the 10 day moving average first and I would love if it did that today in this bad market because when we have a green day, Potash would be a leader and get an even great bump higher.

As of today, the ten day moving average is right at $62.12, we haven't closed over the 10 day level since the Obama rally back in early November. That last run took Pot stock from $70 to $95 in 6 trading sessions. You can see that the potential is there for a nice gainer when this trade plays out. POT is currently at $60, so as of now, I won't be buying POT. Patience is the key because in the past few weeks, every time POT has tested the 10 day it has failed and gone lower. One of these days this trend will reverse and I will be buying. I will not be buying all at once, I will average up!

In this current stock market, it is all about NOT losing money! When I buy, I will be keeping a very tight stop to protect me from losing money. Most traders try to catch a falling knife and have gotten killed this year. I have been sitting on my hands for awhile now waiting to see some strength in this stock to take a long position.

To be continued.............

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Stock Market Open 12/1/08 - Dow Jones

The Stock Markets and Dow Jones are tanking this morning, 12/01/08, as we gapped below 8672 and we are breaking key support of 8500. I am out of everything except a have a small piece of Google ( GOOG ) that I am holding on to. Sold my $10 MELI at $12.02. Will wait to see what that stock does later this week, would love to be able to buy back below $10. This has been the trend over the past few months for the stock market, sell the beginning of the month when all the horrible economic data comes out, buy the middle to the end of the month. We'll have to see how we close today!

Dow Jones - 8460
Nasdaq - 1466
S&P 500 - 853

Today's Biggest Gainers - 12/1/08

Ford ( F ) is up 10% this morning and is one of the few bright spots in the market.



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Art Cashin CNBC Comments 12/1/08

Art Cashin was on CNBC today, 12/1/08, and gave some comments on the stock market and what he is watching.

Art Cashin Comments - CNBC - December 1, 2008

There was some hope that some of the Fed's action were working last week....the market is down because of some economic things out of China. Friday's data is going to get worse and worse and worse, but the market will turn well before the economic data gets better. Rallies in bear markets are short, sharp, and die in low volume.

For all of Art's previous comments, Click Here

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Dry Bulk Shipping Rates Report - 12/1/08

The following is a report on Dry Bulk Shipping Rates for 12/01/08. This data is critical for how the DryBulk Shipping Stocks such as DryShips ( DRYS ), Excel Maritime Carriers ( EXM ), Diana Shipping ( DSX ), Genco Shipping ( GNX ), TBS International ( TBSI ), Navios Maritime ( NM ), and OceanFreight ( OCNF ) will trade during the day. As you probably know, the Dry Bulk Shipping index can tell you a lot about the state of the World Economy. When Bulk Shipping Rates are at all time highs, the World Economy is outstanding. When Bulk Shipping Rates are as low as they have been lately, it signifies that the world economy has come to a screeching halt.


Dry Bulk Shipping Rates - December 1, 2008

Baltic Dry Index ( BDI ) - 700 Down 15
Baltic Cape Index ( BCI ) - 833 Down 5
Baltic Panamax Index ( BPI ) - 590 Down 32
Baltic Supramax Index ( BSI ) - 610 Down 12
Past Bulk Shipping Rates

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Research in Motion RIMM downgraded Raymond James

12/01/08 - Raymond James has come out this morning and cut their price target on Research in Motion ( RIIM ) from $80 to $72. I'm guessing they are citing weak holiday sales.

Upgrades & Downgrades 12/01/08

Bankrate RATE - Citigroup from Hold to Buy
Toll Brothers TOL - Credit Suisse from Underperform to Neutral

Abercrombie & Fitch ANF - Pali Research to Sell - Price Target $18 to $15
Morgan Stanley MS - Credit Suisse to Outperform - Price Target $45 to $37.5
Goldman Sachs GS - Credit Suisse to Outperform - Price Target $187.5 to $140

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1 and 3 Month Libor Rates - 12/1/08 - Today's Libor Rates

It seems as though everyone is watching Libor rates these days. Today's Libor Rates for 12/1/08, are: 1 Month Libor Rate - 1.91% & 3 Month Libor Rate - 2.22%. The overnight Libor rate is 1.09%. As you can see, Libor Rates have changed today, December 1, 2008, the overnight Libor Rate moved lower but the 1 month moved slightly higher.

Here are Previous Libor rates. You can also compare Libor Rates to how the Dow Jones traded.

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Stock Market Futures 12/1/08 - Dow Jones

The Dow Jones and Stock Market Futures are indicating a lower open today, 12/1/08, as Asian Markets fell overnight. I will be watching the first half hour of trading to see if we add to weakness and violate the lows set on Friday of 8762. We have gone up five straight days in a Bear Market so we were bound to slip one of these days. The key is to see if we bounce back later today or tomorrow. Over the past few months the trend has been selling the beginning of the month and buying at the end of each month. This probably has something to do with the jobs reports being released at the start of each month as well. This Friday, we get a fresh look at the November Jobs report which is expected to be down 330,000 jobs and major downward revisions from October. This is something to watch closely!

Stock Market Futures - December 1st, 2008

Dow Jones Futures - Down 163
Nasdaq Futures - Down 26
S&P 500 Futures - Down 20
Nikkei Close - 8397 Down 113

Todays Biggest Gainers - 12/01/08

Yahoo ( YHOO ) is up today as there are rumors Microsoft is coming back to the table once again. Citigroup ( C ), General Motors ( GM ), and Suntech Power ( STP ) are among the big losers for the day.


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