Nouriel Roubini June 22, 2009 6/22/09

Nouriel Roubini was interviewed in Paris on June 22, 2009. The famous economist from NYU said that higher oil prices and rising interest rates will basically cause green shoots to turn brown. Roubini also says he sees a " significant market correction coming."


Nouriel Roubini Highlights - 6/22/09


- Roubini sees a W shaped double dipped recession by the end of 2010


- Oil could close out 2009 at near $100, negative shock to the economy


- Unemployment rate could hit 11% in the next several months


- The areas that should be bottoming out aren't yet; unemployment, housing, consumption and sales data, industrial production


- Financial Regulation: Less leverage, less risk, more liquidity


- The recent market rally was because in March people were discounting a near depression....now the market is pricing in a rapid V shaped recovery. There are huge downside surprise risks to come.


- I believe there will be a significant market correction for commodities, credit, and stocks.



The stock market is dropping today because of this news.

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Nouriel Roubini March 31 2009 3/31/09 CNBC

Nouriel Roubini, " Dr. Doom, " came on CNBC this morning and gave comments on what he is seeing in the stock market and financial sector. Nouriel Roubini has been calling this meltdown and has been right for 3 years. He has a downside target for the S&P 500 at 600 and believes this is just another bear market rally. Nouriel believes recent lows will be tested again.

Toxic Asset Plan:

- It will work for awhile but its still not going to stop the problem because they might sell assets below value.

- No one knows what the bad assets are worth, some banks will resist selling them at low prices

- It is time for a special insolvency regime for institutions

- Government bears risks after first losses of toxic loans

- If economy gets worse, it could get ugly very quickly

- There is still a wealth transfer taking place

- Still think some banks must fail and get taken over

Light at the end of the tunnel - We are going to avoid a depression - since they are using everything in their power to avoid this ( the bazooka ) - But it's going to be a long way out of this.

We are close to a stock market bottom but this is just another bear market rally. I still see downside risk more then upside risks for the stock market.

I've been right for three years, in my view, this is still a bear market rally. I see the previous lows being tested again. I will be the first to tell you when I see a recovery. You saw the market get pushed down 3-4% on the GM news yesterday. This is a very shaky stock market!!

Housing prices will fall by another 15-20% - Housing market has not bottomed out. I am still much more bearish then consensus.

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